“Trust but verify” financial inclusion in the MENA region

Using data from the World Value and Financial Access Surveys from 2010 to 2021 in 13 countries in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region, this study investigates the nonlinear impact of general trust (GT) and confidence in banks (CIB) on financial inclusion (FI). In addition, it investigates whether bank risk-taking reinforces the negative effect between trust and financial inclusion. We also estimate a generalized quantile regression, and its results indicate a nonlinear (U-shaped) relationship between GT and FI and a nonlinear (Inverted U-shaped) relationship between CIB and FI. In addition, bank risk-taking strengthens the negative relationship between GT and FI. This is one of the first studies to investigate the relationship between general trust and financial inclusion with a nonlinear regression. Because the MENA region differs from others in terms of culture and religion, our results vary from those in prior papers on non-MENA countries.

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