ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING OF SMALL BUSINESS ENTITIES' ACTIVITIES IN ENSURING REGIONAL FOOD SECURITY BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS
Jumanazarov Oserbay SeytmuratovichBerdak Karakalpak State University in Nukus Associate Professor,Berdak Karakalpak State University in Nukus Associate Professor,Berdak Karakalpak State University in Nukus a bachelor student,Berdak Karakalpak State University in Nukus a bachelor studentRakhimboev MuzaffarBerdak Karakalpak State University in Nukus Associate Professor,Berdak Karakalpak State University in Nukus Associate Professor,Berdak Karakalpak State University in Nukus a bachelor student,Berdak Karakalpak State University in Nukus a bachelor studentKozbakov JasulanBerdak Karakalpak State University in Nukus Associate Professor,Berdak Karakalpak State University in Nukus Associate Professor,Berdak Karakalpak State University in Nukus a bachelor student,Berdak Karakalpak State University in Nukus a bachelor studentAzirbaev Jalgasbay Angsatbay UliBerdak Karakalpak State University in Nukus Associate Professor,Berdak Karakalpak State University in Nukus Associate Professor,Berdak Karakalpak State University in Nukus a bachelor student,Berdak Karakalpak State University in Nukus a bachelor student
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)repository2026
ABI
Аннотация
This research evaluates small business contributions to regional food security using econometric models. SMEs enhance all four food security pillars through short supply chains and economic multipliers. Regression analysis shows SME density explains 25-40% variance in food access; SEM reveals supply chain resilience pathways. ARIMA/VAR and machine learning models provide 7-month forecasts, identifying SME market share as top stability predictor. Policy thresholds: >15% SME density signals robust security.
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