Sustainable development and economic security indices versus macroeconomic turbulence: a nonlinear composite analysis for EU-27 and Ukraine (2005–2024)

Economic security and sustainable development are usually assessed with annual composite indicators, while macro-financial stress can change much faster. This paper explores that mismatch by linking annual SDG indicators to a monthly Composite Turbulence Index (CTI) for the EU-27 and Ukraine in 2005–2024. The CTI combines rolling volatility and autocorrelation with permutation entropy and the DFA-based Hurst exponent. Monthly turbulence measures are summarized to annual values and compared with SDG scores for 2015–2024, including a compact economic-security proxy based on SDG 8, SDG 9, and SDG 16. The results show a negative but statistically weak relationship between SDG performance and turbulence. At the same time, Ukraine displays persistently higher instability. Additional checks with EU-27-only estimates, lagged specifications, and PCA-based weighting do not change the overall picture. The results support a two-layer approach to monitoring economic security: annual indicators for structural benchmarking and higher-frequency turbulence measures for short-run risk surveillance.

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