Predicting Weather for Prescribed Burns in the South-Western Cape, Republic of South Africa

SYNOPSIS This paper addresses the problem of predicting suitable burning weather for the south-western Cape Province by means of synoptic analysis. Weather for veld burning has to comply with limits of windspeed (hourly maximum <16 km/h), temperature (daily maximum between 18°C and 28°C) and relative humidity (daily minimum between 15% and 45%). Synoptic conditions which are associated with favourable burning weather are outlined. A model five-day sequence of pressure charts was developed for use as an analogue consultation system for predicting burning weather. During a test application of the model five-day sequence it could be shown that the system is useful for alerting veld managers about when to expect weather suitable for controlled burning up to three days in advance.

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