Economic efficiency analysis of the adaptation to climate change in forestry in Russia

Expected climate change will have a severe impact on all areas of economic activity.In the forestry sector, they can manifest themselves in the long term, while being critical for forest biocoenosis.To identify and prevent possible adverse effects of climate change in forestry, development of adaptation measures that reduce the vulnerability of forest systems, taking into account long-term climate models and analysis of scenarios for the development of ecosystems, is required.This study analyses the main classification indicators that characterise the adaptation measures for the forestry sector based on the time, duration, scale, responsibility and the specific purpose of each adaptation measure and strategy, and the degree of priority of the adaptation measures.Based on the assessment of risks caused by climate change, adaptation measures are proposed for four main factors of the vulnerability of forest ecosystems: forest fires, forest diseases, outbreaks of insect pests, extreme weather events.The study compares the vulnerability of forestry to these factors.In work the methodology of economic efficiency calculation of forest management adaptation to predicted climate changes is offered.The method is based on the comparison of costs in the sphere of nature management to the implementation of adaptation measures and after their application, taking into account the simulated climate indices by the middle and the end of the century.On the example of fire control in forests, the economic efficiency of improving the system for detecting forest fires in the territory of the Moscow Region has been calculated.It was concluded the economic feasibility of introducing a video monitoring system as a measure of adaptation to the projected increase in the state of burning in the region.

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