EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE IN SAMARKAND REGION

Agricultural production is highly sensitive to climate factors like other endogenous factors, and the expected climate change projections may have a negative impact on the efficiency and income of agricultural producers. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the impact of changes in climatic factors (average air temperature and precipitation) on the technical efficiency of cotton growing farmers as its determinants in Samarkand region. Empirical analyzes were performed on the cases of 1141 cottongrowing farms using panel-based Time-Invariant Inefficiency model. According to the results of the analysis, cotton farms in the region have an average technical efficiency of 76%, which in turn means that there is an opportunity to increase the efficiency of available resources on farms by 24%. The impact of climate variability on productivity was also studied. Based on the analysis, it was found that the average rainfall has a positive effect and, conversely, an increase in average air temperature by 1 degree in May-September can lead to a 12% decrease in farm efficiency. The effects of other factors affecting efficiency were also studied. In conclusion, the provision of sufficient water and financial resources (credit) and membership in agricultural cooperatives will allow cotton farmers in the region to reduce the impact of the expected effects of climate change and increase their technical efficiency.

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