The Role of Water Resources in Geopolitical Processes in Central Asia

This study explores the growing geopolitical importance of water resources in Central Asia, with particular focus on their role in maintaining regional stability amid climate change, interstate relations, and external influences. The urgency of the issue stems from the need to move away from traditional approaches toward adaptive strategies aligned with current geopolitical dynamics. The research highlights key environmental challenges worsened by water issues, including the desiccation of the Aral Sea, declining surface and groundwater quality, loss of wetlands, and rising soil salinity. Additionally, developments like the construction of the Qosh-Tepa canal in Afghanistan introduce new geopolitical risks. Through historical and contemporary analysis, the study traces the evolution of the “Central Asia” concept, covering five core nations – Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan – while also recognizing Afghanistan’s growing geopolitical role. The Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, which provide most of the region’s freshwater, are analyzed along with the legal, political, and infrastructural challenges of managing transboundary waters. The paper reviews regional and global initiatives, including the 1992 Nukus Agreement, UN water conventions, and crisis group reports. Drawing from global cases such as the India-Bangladesh Ganges treaty, it proposes cooperative models for Central Asia. A geostrategic model is presented, integrating water strategy, transport corridor development, and geopolitical balancing. It outlines practical steps such as improving legal frameworks, investing in small reservoirs and water-saving technologies, and establishing regional centers for drought resilience and coordination. In conclusion, the study emphasizes that sustainable water governance and strategic foresight are vital for long-term peace, development, and ecological stability in Central Asia. These findings aim to guide policymakers and scholars in forming cooperative strategies for a region increasingly shaped by water geopolitics.

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