Role of Heat Pump Technologies in Reducing Carbon Emissions in the Heating Sector

Heat pumps are emerging as a key technology for cutting carbon emissions in residential heating. This study explores how two common types — air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) and ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs) — can reduce emissions compared to conventional gas boilers. Through simulation-based analysis, we looked at how these systems perform across different electricity grid conditions and climates, including cold (Warsaw), temperate (Rome), and arid (Tashkent) regions. Our findings reveal that heat pumps can reduce emissions by 58% to 94%, depending on the scenario. In general, GSHPs deliver higher efficiency, especially in colder climates, making them more effective there. On the other hand, ASHPs tend to be more cost-effective and practical in warmer or milder areas. Another critical insight: the cleaner the electricity grid, the greater the emission reductions. In regions where electricity comes from renewable sources or low-carbon generation, the climate benefits of heat pumps are even more substantial. Ultimately, these results highlight the importance of strategic deployment. Choosing the correct type of heat pump — based on local climate and energy infrastructure — is key. With supportive policies and a continued shift toward cleaner grids, heat pumps can make a significant contribution to a low-carbon future in home heating.

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