Application of Mathematical Modeling for Long-term Forecasting of Electricity Generation by Solar Power Plants in the Republic of Uzbekistan

The article provides a critical analysis of existing methods for predicting electricity generation by solar power plants and identifies the advantages and disadvantages of each of the methods used. A simple method for predicting electricity generation by solar power plants is proposed, regardless of the installed capacity of solar panels. The method consists in applying a third-degree polynomial approximation of the curve of monthly electricity generation as a percentage of the theoretically possible output. The method considers the intensity of solar radiation depending on the season, as well as seasonal climatic factors such as gloomy and sunny days and ambient temperature. Taking these factors into account allowed us to obtain a deviation in determining the annual amount of electricity, not exceeding 12% of the real amount. The application of the method makes it possible to evaluate the efficiency of solar power plants of any capacity, depending on the season, which simplifies the connection of solar power plants to the general energy system of the country.

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