Modeling climate-driven habitat shifts of high-value colored-wood Catalpa species in China: Implications for sustainable timber production

Global warming is reshaping the spatial niches and productivity of forest resources, challenging the reliable supply of high-value timber. Catalpa fargesii and Catalpa lutea are two colored-wood species with outstanding ornamental and mechanical properties, showing strong potential for industrial timber production in China. However, the long-term “use-over-management” approach has resulted in rapid resource decline and insufficient understanding of their climatic adaptability. In this study, the MaxEnt model was applied to predict the current and future (2050s–2070 s) potential suitable habitats of both species under two climate scenarios (SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5), integrating climatic, edaphic, and topographic variables Temperature (bio 6, bio 9) and precipitation (bio 12, bio 14) emerged as the principal climatic controls, with soil base saturation and terrain heterogeneity further shaping suitability. Currently, C. fargesii is centered in the Loess Plateau–Qinling–Taishan (44.52 × 10⁴ km²), whereas C. lutea occupies the eastern warm-temperate belt (30.57 × 10⁴ km²). Under climate change both show a “contraction and expansion” pattern, but responses diverge: C. fargesii remains stable with minor centroid shift, while C. lutea is climate-sensitive, showing a about 10.03 × 10 4 km² contraction (2050 s, SSP1–2.6) followed by a ∼48% expanding compared with the current suitable area (2070 s, SSP5–8.5), with centroid moving present to NE to SE—signaling distinct niches and actionable zoning. These results provide an operational, spatial basis for the sustainable cultivation, targeted introduction, and clonal propagation of Catalpa species. By supporting stable domestic raw-material supply chains and high-value timber industries, this study contributes to the development of climate-resilient and economically sustainable forestry in China. • Predicted suitable habitats of Catalpa fargesii and Catalpa lutea under current and future climates using MaxEnt. • Quantified environmental factors and clarified the constraints shaping the distribution of colored-wood species. • Revealed distinct responses of the two species to climate change, showing a “contraction-expansion” dynamic pattern. • Developed a climate-niche-industry framework to guide sustainable cultivation and planning of high-value timber species. • Guided targeted introduction, clonal propagation, and stable raw-material supply of Catalpa colored-wood resources.

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