Limit Simulation Method: A Pre-Empirical Framework for Stress-Testing Social Theories — How Forced Scaling to National OS Revealed Seven Structural Failure Points in V=N/D
Аннотация
This paper introduces the Limit Simulation Method (LSM), a pre-empirical methodology for stress-testing social theories by forcing them to operate at extreme scale before any empirical data is collected. Unlike thought experiments (which remain conceptual) and RCTs (which operate at limited scale), LSM deliberately pushes a theoretical framework to its structural limits in order to expose failure points that small-scale experiments cannot reveal. The method is formally defined, contrasted with existing approaches (thought experiments, agent-based modeling, RCTs, scenario planning), and documented through its application to V=N/D theory. Application of LSM to V=N/D — forcing the theory to operate as a national OS across twelve governance domains — produced seven structural failure points, four of which trace to the theory's axioms. We argue that LSM represents a formally distinct and scientifically valuable step in the theory-building process: one that belongs between initial hypothesis formation and empirical testing. The courage to publish failure is the foundation of scientific honesty.
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