Seismic risk assessment of Tashkent’s residential buildings based on the 1966 earthquake scenario

The city of Tashkent is situated in one of the most seismically active regions of Uzbekistan and has historically experienced significant damage from major earthquakes, notably in 1868 and 1966. This study aims to assess the seismic safety of the city’s housing stock by analyzing the structural characteristics of residential buildings, utilizing a modeled scenario based on data from the 1966 Tashkent earthquake. The research evaluates the seismic resilience of existing residential structures, including the performance of construction materials and structural systems. Seismic risk was assessed using the OpenQuake software, with local soil conditions incorporated into the analysis. The 3D database and building attributes for 197,740 single-storey and 11,283 multi-storey buildings in Tashkent’s housing stock were imported into the platform using ArcGIS. Fragility curves for each building type were subsequently developed with the LIRA-CAD program. The scenario-based analysis indicates that certain residential building types exhibit low levels of seismic safety, posing significant potential risks to human life in future earthquake events. Notably, approximately 4.0% of the housing stock—primarily brick and adobe buildings constructed before 1966—may experience severe damage under a magnitude Mw 5.5 earthquake scenario. Based on the findings, the research highlights the need for enhanced infrastructure and improved construction standards to mitigate seismic risk. These findings are of strategic importance for urban planning and the protection of the population in Tashkent.

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