The Role of Trade Openness in Shaping Export Strategies Toward the Greep Economy

This thesis investigates how trade openness shapes the adaptation of export strategies toward green economy requirements across five major economies — the United States, China, Germany, Great Britain, and Australia — over the period 2000 to 2023. Using a balanced panel dataset of 120 country-year observations drawn from the World Bank, the International Energy Agency, UN Comtrade, and the OECD, the study estimates three complementary econometric models: a Fixed Effects panel regression, a dynamic System GMM model (Arellano-Bond), and an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) specification. The Fixed Effects model — confirmed as the preferred estimator by the Hausman test (p = 0.032) — finds that a one-percentage-point increase in trade openness raises the share of green exports in total exports by approximately 0.195 percentage points (p < 0.01). This result survives dynamic GMM estimation, which also reveals strong path-dependence: roughly 45% of a given year's green export share is inherited from the previous year. Environmental policy stringency and renewable energy adoption are the other two most powerful drivers of green export adaptation. The EKC analysis confirms that trade openness reduces CO₂ per capita (β = −0.312), with an estimated income turning point of around USD 13,800 per capita — a threshold already surpassed by four of the five countries studied. Together, the evidence positions trade openness as a structural enabler of green export strategy adaptation, particularly when combined with strong domestic environmental policy.

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