Technological innovation and green paradigms as drivers of sustainability: a structural equation modeling study with institutional moderators

Purpose The rapid degradation of the environment and rising sustainability demands have encouraged firms to integrate technological advancement with environmental principles to ensure resilient and long-term growth. This study examines the effects of technological innovations and green paradigms on sustainability outcomes and assesses the moderating roles of policy constraints, social barriers and policy support within an institutional framework in the Central Asia context. Design/methodology/approach A quantitative, cross-sectional research design was adopted using survey data from 1,023 respondents across manufacturing, energy and technology sectors. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM) with 5,000 bootstrap samples were employed to test direct, mediating and moderating relationships among the constructs. Findings Technological innovations exert a significant positive influence on Green Paradigms and sustainability outcomes. Green paradigms also significantly enhance Sustainability Outcomes and partially mediate the relationship between technological innovation and sustainability (indirect effect ß = 0.15, 95% CI [0.092, 0.215]). Policy constraints weaken the effect of technological innovation on Green Paradigms, while social barriers reduce the impact of Green Paradigms on Sustainability Outcomes. The model demonstrates a strong fit (CFI = 0.95; RMSEA = 0.045) and explains 0.46 of the variances in Green Paradigms and 0.58 in Sustainability Outcomes. Originality/value This study refines existing models by distinguishing upstream and downstream institutional effects within a unified framework. It shows how constraints shape the translation of innovation into green paradigms, while support and social factors condition sustainability outcomes, providing a clearer explanation of sustainability transitions. It integrates technological innovation, green paradigms and sustainability outcomes within a unified framework, showing that green paradigms mediate this relationship while institutional factors condition its strength across stages, offering a clearer mechanism for how sustainability outcomes are achieved.

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