ECONOMIC CYCLES AND PHASE DYNAMICS IN THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA (2016–2025): THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

This paper provides a comprehensive theoretical and empirical analysis of economic cycle phases in the Republic of South Africa over the period 2016–2025. Drawing on classical and modern macroeconomic theories — including Keynesian, neoclassical, and Real Business Cycle frameworks — the study examines how GDP growth dynamics reflect the successive stages of expansion, peak, contraction, trough, and recovery. Empirical data demonstrate that South Africa experienced a prolonged period of weak expansion between 2016 and 2018, followed by a deceleration in 2019 and an unprecedented crisis in 2020 triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Although a strong rebound was recorded in 2021, subsequent years revealed a pattern of renewed slowdown and stagnation that persisted through 2025. The analysis concludes that South Africa’s economic cycle is best characterized as a weak U-shaped trajectory: the economy recovers from acute shocks but consistently fails to sustain high growth, owing to persistent structural constraints including high unemployment, inadequate investment, and weak productivity.

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