STATISTICAL MODELING OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE AGE STRUCTURE OF HUMAN CAPITAL ON LABOR PRODUCTIVITY IN THE SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL

The article examines the problem of the influence of the age structure of human capital on labor productivity in the regions of the Russian Federation using panel econometrics methods. The relevance of the study is due to demographic changes taking place in the country: an aging population, a decrease in the number of able-bodied people and a change in the age profile of those employed, which poses serious challenges to ensuring sustainable economic growth. The aim of the work is to quantify the impact of the age structure of employees on labor productivity in Russian regions, taking into account regional and sectoral heterogeneity. The methodological framework includes an extended production function, fixed-effect panel regression models, instrumental variable methods for solving the problem of endogeneity, as well as distributed lag models for estimating long-term effects. The empirical database is based on official data from the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia for eighty-five subjects of the Russian Federation for the period 2005-2023. The ratio of the gross regional product to the average annual number of people employed in the economy is used as an indicator of labor productivity. The age structure of human capital is characterized by the shares of employees in four age groups: 15- 29 years old (youth), 30-39 years old (young qualified personnel), 40-54 years old (experienced workers, men), 55-72 years old (preretirement and retirement age).

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