MATHEMATICAL MODELING FOR SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT OF KARAKATA GROUNDWATER DEPOSITS

This study presents a numerical assessment of groundwater flow and filtration properties of the Senonian-Lower Eocene aquifer complex within the Karakata artesian basin (Uzbekistan), based on the interpretation of long-term operational data, well test results, and regime observations obtained under conditions of incomplete and heterogeneous hydrogeological information, where key filtration, water conductivity, elasticity, and piezo conductivity parameters were estimated using analytical approaches and refined through inverse problem solutions, and a single-layer groundwater flow model with spatially heterogeneous hydraulic properties was developed using the MODFLOW code, incorporating major structural features of the basin including tectonic fault zones acting as pathways for additional groundwater recharge and discharge, with model calibration performed through stationary and transient inverse simulations achieving good agreement between observed and simulated piezometric heads with deviations generally within ±5 m, while the results indicate that the aquifer complex is predominantly confined and exhibits pronounced lateral heterogeneity in hydraulic conductivity, long-term exploitation has been sustained mainly by dynamic flow reserves and elastic storage with a significant contribution from fault-controlled inflow from the Paleozoic basement, the estimated dynamic groundwater reserves are lower than previously reported values, and the developed model provides a reliable framework for groundwater balance assessment, forecasting of aquifer response to pumping, and sustainable groundwater resource management in arid regions.

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