ECONOMETRIC AND SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF GDP ENERGY INTENSITY IN UZBEKISTAN

This study applies a log-linear econometric model estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) to analyse the dynamics of GDP energy intensity in Uzbekistan over the period 2011–2023. The empirical specification is derived from the log-differentiated energy balance identity, linking energy intensity to GDP growth and primary energy consumption and allowing estimation of elasticity coefficients and identification of decoupling effects. Stationarity is assessed using the Dickey–Fuller procedure and a Chow test evaluates parameter stability across the 2017 structural break. The estimated GDP elasticity (γ = −0.975, p < 0.001) indicates near-proportional decoupling between economic output and energy demand, while the energy consumption elasticity (β = 0.873, p < 0.001) reflects embedded efficiency gains. The model achieves R² = 0.9967 and MAPE = 0.18%. Three scenario projections for 2024–2030 — inertial, moderate, and intensive — yield end-period energy intensity values of 0.0784, 0.0666, and 0.0561 kgoe/USD, respectively. Only the moderate and intensive scenarios satisfy the SDG 7.3 benchmark of 3.4% annual improvement. The results provide a quantitative foundation for evaluating long-term energy efficiency strategies under macroeconomic uncertainty.

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