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The Best 'Early Warning' is Prevention: Refugee Flows and European Responses

Geoff GilbertReader in Law,University of Essex, The author is grateful to Jane Wright, a colleague, for an early copy of her article, 'The OSCE and Minorities', 18 HRQ/90 (1996), without which many of the ideas expressed in this article would not have been identified. The author is also indebted to Jane Wright, Susanne Schmeidl, Francoise Hampson, Jeremy Bristol and Nigel Rodley for their views on an early draft; however, the views expressed and any errors are mine alone. The law is stated as at 1 July 1996

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An early warning system should prevent refugee flows wherever possible. This article focuses on mechanisms designed to relieve the tensions that give rise to trans-border influxes, rather than on the measures designed to help those preparing to receive imminent flows, which is not so much ‘early warning’ as effective crisis management. The author offers a definition of early warning, drawing on international organization practice and comment, looks closely at the preventive diplomacy activities of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (including the issue of minority rights and the mandate of the High Commissioner on National Minorities), and at various steps taken within the ambit of the Council of Europe and the European Community.

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DOI: 10.1093/ijrl/9.2.207

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