Assessment of the riverside vulnerability

Principal objective of the present work was to consider the mechanism of riverside destruction by water flow as a random process, which depends on the flow velocity and sustainability of the riverside.The riverside vulnerability was taken as the indicator with respect to the influence of such processes.Vulnerability assessed according to all those indices characteristic of its critical value.It was necessary to select one of the basic determining (integral) factors out of the indicators characteristic of critical state, according to which vulnerability of the object will be assessed.With the aim of practical application of the considered method, let us examine a virtual example was examined.The observation data subject to normal distribution law was assumed.For the admissible -1 river current velocity n = 15, mathematical expectation m = 3 m sec , mean square deviation σ = 0.9; for a a a bed velocity, n = 20.The confidence interval of bank vulnerability was identified.Finally, the vulnerability of b a river bank with 0.95 probability was within the interval of I = (0.57; 0.9) with point evaluation z = 0.77. 0.95The mechanism of riverside destruction by water flow was considered as a random process, which depends on both the effect of flow rate and riverside stability.Vulnerability, the characteristic of the riverside was taken as the indicator of this process with respect to such influence, and famous model "load -stability" from the theory of reliability was used for its identification.

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