DIRECTIONS FOR USING A METHODOLOGY TO FORECAST STATE BUDGET REVENUES BASED ON THEIR INTERRELATIONSHIP WITH REGIONAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

This article examines the issues of improving the methodology for forecasting state budget revenues based on their interrelationship with the socio-economic development of regions. The study assesses the impact of differentiated tax policy and financial support measures implemented on the basis of regional categorization in the Republic of Uzbekistan on entrepreneurial activity and state budget revenues. The theoretical framework of the research is based on the approaches of foreign scholars in the fields of fiscal federalism, countercyclical fiscal policy, and the efficiency of financial transfers. The empirical analysis is conducted using panel data for the period 2021–2025 and applies the Difference-in-Differences econometric model. The results confirm that tax incentives and differentiated financial support measures have a positive effect on increasing entrepreneurial activity, investment, and tax revenues in economically less developed regions. The findings provide a basis for developing practical recommendations to incorporate regional socio-economic indicators into state budget revenue forecasting, enhance fiscal policy effectiveness, and reduce interregional economic disparities.

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