Modeling Decarbonization Scenarios of Russia’s Fuel and Energy Sector Taking into Account Climate Constraints and Global Trends

The article explores theoretical-methodological and applied aspects of modeling decarbonization scenarios for the fuel and energy complex (FEC) of the Russian Federation, considering climate constraints and transformations within the global energy architecture. It substantiates the critical role of the energy sector in implementing climate policy, including achieving carbon neutrality, and analyzes the challenges associated with reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The structure of a comprehensive forecasting system is presented, integrating modules for global and national economies, as well as for the world and Russian energy sectors. The article details algorithms for the formation of FEC development scenarios, encompassing assessments of energy demand, technological transformation of industries, regional consumption breakdown, energy system balancing, and evaluation of the financial and economic consequences of decarbonization strategies. Special attention is paid to the adaptation of the SCANER model, developed by institutions of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and to the coordination of macroeconomic and energy forecasts within the framework of intersectoral planning.

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