Green transition drivers and economic growth in Uzbekistan: a mixed-method analysis with comparative insights from Azerbaijan

This study examines how green transition indicators are linked with Uzbekistan’s macroeconomic performance between 2010 and 2023 and complements the analysis with a comparative review of Azerbaijan’s policy framework. A mixed-method design is used, combining a multiple linear regression model with qualitative analysis of national strategies and international assessments. The model includes lagged GDP growth, FDI as a share of GDP, CO₂ emissions per capita, and their interaction to capture conditional effects. While the coefficients are not statistically significant, the directions suggest that FDI’s impact on GDP may depend on the emissions intensity of the sectors in which investment occurs. Descriptive patterns indicate modest variability in emissions, fluctuating FDI inflows, and gradual improvements in selected sustainability indicators. In addition to the main regression model, the study also estimates an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) for Uzbekistan to assess the non-linear income–emissions relationship and strengthen the empirical evaluation of the country’s green transition. The comparison shows that Uzbekistan follows a broad, institutionally coordinated transition, whereas Azerbaijan relies on more targeted and investment-heavy renewable initiatives. Overall, the findings underline the role of institutional capacity and investment composition in shaping early green transition outcomes.

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