Toshkent shahri turar-joy fondining simulyatsion modellar asosida ehtimoliy ssenarli zilzilalarda seysmik zaifligini baholash
Annotatsiya
Abstract. This article assesses the seismic vulnerability of the Tashkent city housing stock under potential earthquake scenarios using simulation models. The study comprehensively considered the spatial distribution of the scenario-based seismic impact, local soil conditions, the Vs30 parameter, the typology of residential buildings, their structural features, and their susceptibility to damage. The assessment results indicated that the seismic response of buildings is non-uniform, with the degree of vulnerability strongly depending on the construction period, materials, number of stories, and compliance with seismic codes. According to the results, the highest seismic vulnerability is characteristic of residential buildings belonging to the older construction stock, built from local materials, with limited engineering solutions, and where seismic requirements have not been fully met. Damage levels vary depending on the scenario parameters, with the probability of severe damage and collapse increasing sharply under high-intensity conditions. The research findings serve as a scientific basis for the territorial prioritization of seismic risk, as well as for developing measures to identify, strengthen, and renovate vulnerable buildings in Tashkent.