Spatio-temporal assessment of drought dynamics in Uzbekistan (2001–2024) using MODIS-derived vegetation and temperature indices

In semi-arid regions, drought is a major environmental challenge, and long-term drought deficits, high temperatures, and limited water resources have hampered agricultural productivity and ecosystem health. This study provides a comprehensive spatial-temporal assessment of the drought dynamics in Uzbekistan between 2001 and 2024 using MODIS-derived vegetation and temperature indicators, including the vegetation condition index (VCI), the temperature condition index (TCI), and the vegetation health index (VHI). The data on MODIS NDVI (MOD13Q1) and land surface temperature (MOD11A2) are processed by Google Earth engines to quantify vegetation stress and thermal anomalies over several years and seasons. Temporal analysis revealed significant interannual variability, particularly severe drought episodes in 2004, and partial recovery in 2014 and 2024. The spatial pattern showed that there were heterogeneous effects of drought, and that the central and northern regions showed a moderate recovery of vegetation, while the southern and eastern regions remained under constant pressure, which highlighted the role of climatic extremes, irrigation practices and land use characteristics. The correlation analysis revealed a strong positive agreement between the VHI and the TCI (r = 0.96) while the VCI reported a weaker correlation, highlighting the additional impact of water availability and soil conditions. The results confirm that the integration of VCI, TCI, and VHI provides a robust approach for monitoring and assessing the severity of drought.

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