METHODS FOR IMPROVING RADIO NAVIGATION SYSTEM RELIABILITY IN THE COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SYSTEM MODERNIZATION EFFECTIVENESS

This article examines and proposes a new approach to the comprehensive assessment of the effectiveness of air traffic management system modernization. The assessment is conducted in three principal areas. The first area analyzes the reliability and fault tolerance of radio navigation systems using Markov chains, the betafactor model for common-cause failures (CCFs), and Bayesian statistical estimation methods. The second area examines the joint application of inertial and satellite navigation systems and develops a method for selecting the most appropriate configuration for aviation facilities. The third area is devoted to the quantitative assessment of the human-factor risk that has the greatest influence on accidents and incidents within the air traffic management system. By integrating these three areas into a single framework, a composite modernization effectiveness index is proposed. The proposed method was tested using data from the dual-channel VOR/DME radio navigation system operated at Tashkent Airport. The difference between the analytical calculations and the Monte Carlo simulation results was only 2.3%, demonstrating the high accuracy of the model. The results show that a 10% increase in the beta-factor coefficient for common-cause failures raises the probability of hazardous misleading navigation information by 34%. This reduces the compliance margin relative to the safety requirements established for ICAO Category III operations. The proposed composite index enables navigation service organizations to compare modernization projects in terms of technical reliability, human-factor effects, and economic efficiency, thereby supporting the selection of the most appropriate decisions.

Hali tarjima qilinmagan