THE IMPACT OF STATE BUDGET EXPENDITURES ON HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT: INTERNATIONAL TRENDS, FISCAL EFFICIENCY, AND PRIORITY AREAS FOR UZBEKISTAN

This article examines the impact of government budget expenditure on human capital development by considering the volume, composition, technical efficiency, and outcome orientation of public spending. Drawing on data from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, UNESCO, OECD, WHO, ILO, and official fiscal statistics of Uzbekistan, the study evaluates international trends in public financing of education, healthcare, science, vocational training, and skills development. The methodology includes theoretical and comparative analysis, dynamic analysis, international comparative analysis, and an exploratory correlation analysis covering eight countries. The results indicate that a higher share of government expenditure in GDP does not automatically guarantee stronger human capital outcomes. In the selected countries, the simple correlation between government education expenditure as a share of GDP and HCI+ is not statistically significant. This finding highlights the importance of expenditure composition, governance quality, the effectiveness of education and healthcare services, and the extent to which skills are utilized in the labour market as key transmission mechanisms. The article proposes a conceptual Human-Capital-Oriented Budgeting model and a results-based fiscal management mechanism for Uzbekistan.

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