Eurasian carbon governance: Fragmented decarbonization in a geoeconomic Mosaic

This paper develops a geographical account of carbon governance across Eurasia, conceptualized as a Eurasian Carbon Governance Mosaic: a fragmented yet interdependent order shaped by two external regimes operating through opposite logics—the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), a regulatory instrument, and China’s developmental Green Belt and Road Initiative, the Panda–Dragon Paradox. We argue that fragmentation is not the failure of climate governance but a mode of it. Comparing Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey, the analysis shows how a single external pressure is refracted through divergent political economies into distinct settlements—carbon realism, institutional lock-in, and a compliance trap—while Chinese finance reproduces dependency by market means. CBAM and the Green BRI thereby institute a tiered regime in which compliance capacity, not collective ambition, governs transition. The study advances differentiated sustainability as a framework for analyzing decarbonization that proceeds through inequality rather than convergence.

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