Heterogeneous Effects of Globalization-Driven Migration and Remittances on Vulnerable Employment: The Moderating Role of Institutional Quality in Emerging Economies

Vulnerable employment remains one of the most persistent obstacles to inclusive development in emerging economies, yet the joint influence of globalization, migration, and remittances on employment quality has received limited attention in second-generation panel econometrics. This study investigates the heterogeneous effects of globalization-driven migration and remittance inflows on vulnerable employment, and the moderating role of institutional quality, across 30 emerging economies over the period 1996–2024. The empirical strategy accounts for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity through a comprehensive set of diagnostics, including the Pesaran CD test, the Pesaran and Yamagata slope homogeneity test, CIPS panel unit root tests, and Westerlund Durbin-Hausman cointegration tests, followed by Common Correlated Effects Mean Group and Augmented Mean Group estimation of the long-run parameters and Method of Moments Quantile Regression for distributional heterogeneity. The long-run estimates show that globalization, remittances, institutional quality, and urbanization are associated with lower vulnerable employment, while net migration is associated with higher vulnerable employment. Globalization weakens the positive migration association, whereas institutional quality strengthens the negative globalization association. MMQR estimates show stronger associations at higher quantiles, with cross-quantile tests confirming significant heterogeneity. Extensive robustness checks consistently support these findings. The findings support governance-centred labour market strategies that combine openness, remittance channelling, and institutional reform to accelerate progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 8.

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