STRUCTURAL FACTORS OF FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND IMPROVING THE METHODOLOGY FOR FORECASTING AND ALLOCATING BUDGETARY RESOURCES

The article distinguishes the quantitative and qualitative dimensions of fiscal consolidation, substantiates structural consolidation as a scientific category reflecting the portion of fiscal adjustment achieved through structural measures, and proposes a coefficient-based approach to its quantitative assessment. It explains the rationale for forecasting the budgetary resource base using a three-factor model encompassing macroeconomic, policy, and tax administration factors. A six-stage methodology is developed, beginning with resource forecasting and progressing through the establishment of expenditure ceilings, determination of baseline expenditure, calculation of fiscal space, allocation according to four criteria, and subsequent monitoring.

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