Sustainability Uncertainty, Green Innovation, and Energy Intensity: Evidence From Chinese Cities

ABSTRACT This study explores how ESG‐related sustainability uncertainty and green technological innovation influence energy intensity across 282 Chinese cities from 2006 to 2022. It employs the Method of Moments Quantile Regression to assess varying effects among cities with different energy‐intensity levels and controls for factors such as financial development, industrial structure, urbanization, population density, transportation, and CO 2 intensity. The results show that ESG‐related uncertainty increases energy intensity, particularly at higher quantiles, whereas green technological innovation reduces it mainly in highly energy‐intensive cities. Financial development and transportation also increase energy intensity at the middle and upper quantiles. The consistency of the results under Panel Quantile Regression and panel Granger‐causality tests supports their reliability, although the findings remain conditional on the selected proxies and city‐level data coverage. The study concludes that sustainability uncertainty can delay energy‐efficiency investment, while the benefits of green innovation depend on local industrial and institutional conditions. Policymakers should provide stable sustainability signals, accelerate the diffusion of green technologies, and tailor energy‐efficiency measures to cities’ energy‐intensity profiles.

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