ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF HOUSING PRICES

This study applies econometric methods to examine the monthly dynamics of apartment prices in a multi-storey residential complex located in the Mirzo Ulugbek district of Tashkent. For the period from January 2023 to September 2025, time series of the price per 1 m² were constructed for apartments in older multi-storey buildings and in newly built developments, and an ARIMA(p,d,q) specification was selected following the Box–Jenkins methodology. The results suggest that apartment prices are likely to remain relatively stable, although the forecast confidence intervals are sufficiently wide. The findings may be useful for construction firms, investors, and households in managing price risk and supporting key decision-making.

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