Identifying geothermal prospectivity zones in the Fergana Valley through lineament density and land surface temperature anomalies

Uzbekistan possesses substantial yet largely underutilized geothermal resources, with an estimated geothermal potential that exceeds its hydrocarbon resources. However, geothermal exploration in this country remains limited due to the data scarcity of detailed subsurface data and the high cost of conventional exploration methods. This study presents a regional-scale geothermal prospectivity assessment in the Fergana Valley using remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS)-based techniques. A lineament density map derived from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and land surface temperature (LST) anomalies extracted from Landsat 8 were integrated using fuzzy logic to identify areas favorable for geothermal exploration. The resulting prospectivity map was further constrained by the distribution of granitic rocks to delineate geothermal exploration target zones. Results indicate that zones of high lineament density and elevated LST anomalies are primarily concentrated within the Chatkal Range, particularly in the southeastern part, where a total of eleven geothermal exploration target zones were identified. The prospectivity model was evaluated using a prediction rate curve (PRC). The area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.74 indicates acceptable predictive performance and a reasonable level of agreement between the prospectivity model and the observed heat flow. These findings demonstrate that the integration of lineament density, LST anomalies and lithological information provides a transparent, low-cost, and transferable workflow built on openly available data for geothermal prospectivity assessment in data-limited areas, particularly in the intramontane regions of Central Asia.

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