ENERGETIKA SOHASIDAGI DAVLAT-XUSUSIY SHERIKLIK SAMARADORLIGINING PRISM INDEKSI ASOSIDA 2027-2031-YILLARGA BASHORATI: NOMONOTON TRAYEKTORIYA TAHLILI

This article develops a forecast of the PRISM composite index, which measures the effectiveness of public–private partnership (PPP) projects in the energy sector, for 2027–2031 using trend equations and identifies its non-monotonic trajectory. The relevance of the study lies in the fact that the four components comprising the index grow at different rates, with some reaching their theoretical upper limit of 1.0 between 2027 and 2030, after which their growth ceases. Consequently, the aggregate index does not exhibit the expected monotonic increase. The study aims to select an appropriate trend model (logistic or polynomial) for each component, extrapolate the models through 2031, and analyse the trajectory of the PRISM index based on the resulting forecasts. Separate trend equations are estimated for financial and commercial efficiency, budgetary efficiency, socio-economic efficiency, and the risk-resilience coefficient using the Gauss–Newton algorithm for nonlinear least squares (NLS) and the ordinary least squares method. The results indicate that the PRISM index increases from 0.745 in 2027 to 0.866 in 2029, but unexpectedly declines to 0.853 in 2030. This decline occurs because the financial and commercial efficiency, socio-economic efficiency, and risk-resilience components reach their saturation points in 2029–2030, eliminating their additional contributions to the growth of the PRISM index. From 2030 onwards, budgetary efficiency becomes the sole source of further index growth. The findings highlight the need to orient PPP policy in the energy sector towards measures aimed at optimising the relationship between public-sector expenditure and partnership-related costs.

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