SYNERGETIC MECHANISMS OF ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC ADAPTATION IN NONLINEAR SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS OF THE ECOLOGICALLY VULNERABLE ARAL SEA REGION

The changing dynamics in ecological systems, which have been taking place in vulnerable ecosystems pose new challenges to adaptation theory as it is traditionally understood. The linear response to changes in the environment which is the standard understanding of adaptation, is unable to adequately depict the features of nonlinear social-ecological-economic systems, such as instability, bifurcations, self-organization, and development of new paths of evolution. This paper, with the help of philosophical and synergetic concepts provides an analysis of ecological-economic concepts of adaptation using the example of the Aral Sea region in Karakalpakstan. Current research was conducted to develop a conceptualization of the mechanisms of ecological-economic adaptation in ecological vulnerable nonlinear social-ecological systems on the basis of the qualitative analysis, systems thinking, synergetic approach, ecological-economics principles, conceptual modeling and case study. Ecological-Economic Adaptive Spiral Model (EEASM) vividly shows the concept of ecological-economic adaptation as a continuous process encompassing five interrelated stages: ecological-economic oscillations; bifurcation and natural-capital destabilization; adaptive learning and institutional/market innovations; self-organization and rethinking of the local economy; and new ecological-economic attractors. The conceptual model of ecological-economic adaptation put forward in the paper helps to better understand the mechanisms of adaptation in social-ecological systems at the level of natural experiments. The critical insight of the theoretical model is that ecological-economic crises can provoke not only ecological and economic downfalls but also innovations, organizational changes, and transformations of natural capital. By integrating the concepts of synergetics, ecological economics, and nonlinear systems theory, the study provides a conceptual advance in adaptation philosophy, sustainability, and resilience theories. It puts forward the propositions for adaptive governance and sustainable development of ecological vulnerable regions based on the mechanisms of ecological-economic adaptation. The present research provides a new paradigm for perceiving ecological-economic adaptation and establishes the theoretical foundation for further empirical studies. The EEASM was developed based on the philosophical and synergetic analysis; therefore, the findings should be considered as preliminary results that require independent verification.

Hali tarjima qilinmagan