Mathematical Modeling of Crustal Tectonic Stress in the Contact Zone of the Western Tien Shan Orogen and Afghan‒Tajik Depression (Uzbekistan)

Abstract To identify seismically hazardous areas in the central, eastern, and southern parts of Uzbekistan, we used Stokes equations to mathematically model neotectonic crustal movements in the contact zone of the Western Tien Shan orogen and Afghan‒Tajik depression. Boundary conditions for the problem were reconstructed, allowing us to obtain velocity fields consistent with instrumental data. Based on these conditions, we calculated the tectonic stress of deep seismically active sections of the crust and analyzed its geodynamic state. The results of our mathematical model allowed us to analyze the seismic activity of first- and second-order tectonic elements of microplates the boundaries of which are potentially earthquake-prone.

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