IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON METEOROLOGICAL TRENDS IN THE CHIRCHIK RIVER BASIN: AN ANALYSİS OF 2008–2024

This study assessed the long-term changes in the main meteorological indicators observed in the Chirchik River Basin during 2008–2024. The objective of the study was to identify the dynamics of air temperature, land surface temperature, precipitation, and wind speed in the upper, middle, and lower parts of the basin and to evaluate their significance for water resources management. The analysis used observational data from the Charvak, Tashkent, and Chinaz meteorological stations, as well as land surface temperature data obtained from the MODIS satellite. The datasets were subjected to quality control, and the monthly values were converted into annual mean or cumulative indicators. Trends were identified using linear regression, and the rates of change were evaluated on a decadal basis. The results showed an increasing air temperature trend at all stations. The warming rate was approximately 0.7–1.0 °C per decade at the Tashkent and Chinaz stations, while it ranged from 0.3 to 0.5 °C per decade at Charvak. MODIS data indicated an increase in land surface temperature, particularly in urbanized areas and over dry surfaces. Precipitation exhibited high interannual variability; however, no stable and statistically significant overall trend was identified. Wind speed also varied mainly within the range of natural fluctuations. The findings indicate that the warming process in the basin has intensified in recent years, while the precipitation regime remains unstable. These changes should be considered in the planning of evaporation losses, irrigation water demand, and seasonal water allocation.

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