YALPI ICHKI MAHSULOT VA IQTISODIY O‘SISHGA SANOAT TARKIBIY O‘ZGARISHLARINING TA’SIRINI TAHLIL QILISH

This article examines the impact of structural changes in Uzbekistan’s industrial sector on gross domestic product and real economic growth. To eliminate methodological inconsistency, annual data for 2022–2025 and January– September indicators for 2024–2025 are treated as separate observation periods. Real GDP growth is used as the dependent indicator instead of nominal GDP changes. Real industrial gross value added growth and annual changes in the manufacturing share are used as explanatory variables. An OLS regression with heteroskedasticity and autocorrelationconsistent standard errors is estimated for 2011–2025. The results indicate a statistically significant relationship between industrial gross value added growth and real GDP growth, while the annual change in the manufacturing share is not statistically significant when included alongside industrial growth. This finding suggests that industrial structural transformation should not be evaluated solely through changes in sectoral shares; productivity, technological upgrading, capital efficiency and intersectoral linkages also need to be considered. The article concludes with policy recommendations aimed at strengthening the quality and sustainability of industrial-led economic growth.

Hali tarjima qilinmagan