Determination of Final Energy Consumption in the Residential Sector of Uzbekistan

This study analyses residential energy consumption in Uzbekistan from 2010 to 2022, focusing on the effects of household income, energy prices, and climate variables.The main objective is to identify key determinants of household energy demand and assess how economic and environmental factors shape consumption patterns over time.Three regression models were developed: a baseline model, a climatic model, and an extended lagged price model that accounts for delayed consumer responses to price changes.The results show that income growth and heating degree days (HDD) are the most influential drivers of residential energy demand.Rising household income increases energy consumption through greater ownership of electrical appliances and improved living standards, whereas colder winters significantly raise heating requirements.Energy prices demonstrate a weaker but time-dependent effect.The lagged price model captures this behaviour most effectively, indicating that households adjust their energy consumption gradually rather than immediately in response to price changes.All models exhibit reduced predictive accuracy during periods of sharp fluctuations in energy prices, particularly following government tariff reforms and fuel supply disruptions.This highlights the importance of incorporating additional factors such as consumer behaviour, technological efficiency, and social awareness into future models.Based on the findings, policy recommendations include implementing flexible and socially sensitive tariff systems, promoting energy-efficient technologies, and supporting thermal insulation upgrades in residential buildings.Public awareness campaigns and targeted subsidies may further encourage energy-saving behaviour.Improving energy efficiency in the residential sector is essential for achieving Uzbekistan's long-term economic stability and environmental sustainability.

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