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Trends and predictions of malnutrition and obesity in 204 countries and territories: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Bryan ChongDiabetes and Immunometabolism Research Group, Department of Diabetes, Faculty of Cardiovascular Medicine & Sciences, School of Life Course Sciences, King's College London, London, United KingdomJayanth JayabaskaranDepartment of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, 5 Lower Kent Ridge Road, 119074, SingaporeGwyneth KongDepartment of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, 5 Lower Kent Ridge Road, 119074, SingaporeYiong Huak ChanBiostatistics Unit, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University Health System, SingaporeYip Han ChinYong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, SingaporeRachel GohDiabetes and Immunometabolism Research Group, Department of Diabetes, Faculty of Cardiovascular Medicine & Sciences, School of Life Course Sciences, King's College London, London, United KingdomKannan ShankarDepartment of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, 5 Lower Kent Ridge Road, 119074, SingaporeCheng Han NgDiabetes and Immunometabolism Research Group, Department of Diabetes, Faculty of Cardiovascular Medicine & Sciences, School of Life Course Sciences, King's College London, London, United KingdomShaun LoongDiabetes and Immunometabolism Research Group, Department of Diabetes, Faculty of Cardiovascular Medicine & Sciences, School of Life Course Sciences, King's College London, London, United KingdomMartin Tze Wah KuehSchool of Medicine, National University of Singapore, SingaporeChaoxing LinDiabetes and Immunometabolism Research Group, Department of Diabetes, Faculty of Cardiovascular Medicine & Sciences, School of Life Course Sciences, King's College London, London, United KingdomVickram Vijay AnandSchool of Medicine, National University of Singapore, SingaporeEthan Cheng Zhe LeeSchool of Medicine, National University of Singapore, SingaporeH.S. Jocelyn ChewDepartment of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, SingaporeDarren Jun Hao TanDiabetes and Immunometabolism Research Group, Department of Diabetes, Faculty of Cardiovascular Medicine & Sciences, School of Life Course Sciences, King's College London, London, United KingdomKai En ChanYong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, SingaporeJiong‐Wei WangNanomedicine Translational Research Programme, Centre for NanoMedicine, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, SingaporeMark MuthiahNational University Centre for Organ Transplantation, National University Health System, SingaporeGeorgios K. DimitriadisObesity, Type 2 Diabetes and Immunometabolism Research Group, Department of Diabetes, Faculty of Cardiovascular Medicine & Sciences, School of Life Course Sciences, King's College London, London, United KingdomDerek J. HausenloyThe Hatter Cardiovascular Institute, University College London, London, UKAnurag MehtaDivision of Cardiology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USARoger FooDepartment of Cardiology, National University Heart Centre, National University Health System, SingaporeGregory Y.H. LipAalborg UniversityMark Y. ChanYong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, SingaporeMamas A. MamasInstitute of Population Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UKCarel W. le RouxDiabetes Complications Research Centre, University College Dublin, Dublin, IrelandNicholas ChewYong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore

2023en

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Litsenziya: cc-by-nc-nd

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Background: Malnutrition and obesity are interdependent pathologies along the same spectrum. We examined global trends and projections of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths from malnutrition and obesity until 2030. Methods: . Countries were stratified into low, low-middle, middle, high-middle, and high SDI bands. Regression models were constructed to predict DALYs and mortality up to 2030. Association between age-standardised prevalence of the diseases and mortality was also assessed. Findings: In 2019, age-standardised malnutrition-related DALYs was 680 (95% UI: 507-895) per 100,000 population. DALY rates decreased from 2000 to 2019 (-2.86% annually), projected to fall 8.4% from 2020 to 2030. Africa and low SDI countries observed highest malnutrition-related DALYs. Age-standardised obesity-related DALY estimates were 1933 (95% UI: 1277-2640). Obesity-related DALYs rose 0.48% annually from 2000 to 2019, predicted to increase by 39.8% from 2020 to 2030. Highest obesity-related DALYs were in Eastern Mediterranean and middle SDI countries. Interpretation: The ever-increasing obesity burden, on the backdrop of curbing the malnutrition burden, is predicted to rise further. Funding: None.

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DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.101850

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