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Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield

Xuhui WangSino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China. [email protected]Christoph MüllerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473, Potsdam, GermanyJ.M. ElliotUniversity of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, Chicago, IL, 60637, USANathaniel D. MuellerDepartment of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USAPhilippe CiaisCommissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies AlternativesJonas JägermeyrColumbia University Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, 10025, USAJames GerberInstitute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, 55108, USAPatrice DumasCentre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement, Nogent sur Marne, 94130, FranceChenzhi WangSino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, ChinaHui YangCommissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies AlternativesLaurent LiLaboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, 75005, Paris, FranceDelphine DeryngClimate Analytics, 10969, Berlin, GermanyChristian FolberthDepartment of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University, 80333, Munich, GermanyWenfeng LiuCollege of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, 100083, Beijing, ChinaDavid MakowskiUniversité Paris-SaclayStefan OlinDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 22362, Lund, SwedenThomas A. M. PughDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 22362, Lund, SwedenAshwan ReddyDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USAErwin SchmidInstitute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, 1180, Vienna, AustriaSujong JeongDepartment of Environmental Planning, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, Seoul, KoreaFeng ZhouSino-French Institute of Earth System Sciences, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, ChinaShilong PiaoCenter for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100085, China

2021en

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ABI

Annotatsiya

Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yield (ΔY). At global scale, ΔY is 34 ± 9% for wheat and 22 ± 13% for maize, with large spatial differences driven more by patterns of precipitation than that of evaporative demand. Comparing irrigation demands with renewable water supply, we find 30-47% of contemporary rainfed agriculture of wheat and maize cannot achieve yield gap closure utilizing current river discharge, unless more water diversion projects are set in place, putting into question the potential of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts.

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Identifikatorlar

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21498-5

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