STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF DAILY RUNOFF CHANGES IN THE PSKEM RIVER

Abstract. Mountain rivers of Central Asia are highly sensitive to climate change due to their dependence on snow and glacier melt processes. This study investigates long-term changes in daily runoff of the Pskem River during 1966–2020 using hydrological observations from the Mulala gauging station. The study compares the baseline climatic period (1966–1990) with the recent climatic period (1991–2020). Statistical approaches including mean daily discharge analysis, relative differences, coefficient of variation, and Mann–Kendall trend analysis were applied. The results demonstrate significant seasonal shifts in runoff formation under climate warming conditions. Earlier snowmelt contribution and increased spring discharge were observed, while reduced runoff was detected during the summer months. Trend analysis revealed statistically significant positive trends during spring and negative trends during summer.

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