Modeling the Leaf Area Index of Inner Mongolia Grassland Based on Machine Learning Regression Algorithms Incorporating Empirical Knowledge

Leaf area index (LAI) is one of the key biophysical indicators for characterizing the growth and status of vegetation and is also used in modeling earth system processes. Machine learning algorithms (MLAs) such as random forest regression (RFR), artificial neural network regression (ANNR) and support vector regression (SVR) based on satellite data have been widely used for the estimation of LAI. However, the selection of input variables has a great impact on the estimation performance of MLAs. In this study, we aimed to improve the LAI inversion model of Inner Mongolia grassland based on MLAs incorporating empirical knowledge. Firstly, we used the ANNR, SVR and RFR approaches, respectively, to rank the input variables including vegetation indices, climate factors, soil factors and topography factors and found that Normalized Difference Phenology Index (NDPI) contributed the most to LAI estimation. Secondly, we selected four sets of input variables, namely, all variables—A, model selected variables—B, overlapping variables—C and self-defined variables—D, respectively. Subsequently, we built twelve LAI estimation models (RFR-A, RFR-B, RFR-C, etc.) based on three MLAs and four sets of input variables. The evaluation of them showed the RFR produced higher prediction accuracy, followed by ANNR and SVR. Furthermore, the RFR-D presented the highest accuracy in predicting LAI (R2 = 0.55, RMSE = 0.37 m2/m2, MAE = 0.29 m2/m2). Finally, we compared our results with MODIS LAI and GEOV2 LAI products and found that all of them showed a similar spatial distribution of grassland LAI in the four sub-regions covering all grassland types, but our model exhibited larger LAI values in the desert steppe and smaller LAI values in the others. These findings demonstrated that MLAs incorporating empirical knowledge could improve the accuracy of modelling LAI and further study is necessary to reduce the uncertainty in LAI mapping in grassland.

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