Modelling Coal Energy Consumptionand Economic Growth: Does Asymmetry Matterin the Case of South Africa?

In accordance with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Kyoto protocol and the United Nations Sustainable development goals (UNSDGs) on climate action (SDG-13), there has been a need across economies for transition from fossil-fuel-based energy sources such as coal energy consumption to cleaner energy options i.e., a transition to a low-carbon economy. To this end, the present study explores the asymmetric relationship between coal energy consumption, economic growth, rising urban population and emission level in South Africa. The present study span is conducted on an annual frequency basis from 1965-2018. This study applies the novel Non-linear Autoregressive distributed lag methodology (NARDL) for the highlighted variables. Empirical results validate the asymmetric relationship between the variables under review over the study period. The NARDL regression further shows positive shock by GDP increases CO<sub>2</sub> emission level while negative impact affects otherwise in the long run. On the other hand, coal consumption positive shock exhibits a detrimental impact on environmental quality in South Africa. This is insightful for policymakers. The urban population shows non-significant effect on emission levels over the sampled period. The knowledge of both positive and negative shock effects of GDP, coal energy consumption and urban growth is vital for policy construction in terms of both economic and environmental sustainability. Thus, policy prescription ranges from energy transition to alternative and cleaner energy sources like renewables and responsible energy consumption (SDG-12) should be pursued in South Africa. More far-reaching environmental policies are highlighted in the concluding section.

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