Large-scale flood risk assessment in data-scarce areas: an application to Central Asia

Abstract. The countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan in Central Asia are highly prone to natural hazards, particularly floods, earthquakes, and landslides. The European Union, in collaboration with the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), created the programme Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) to advance disaster and climate resilience in the region. As part of the SFRARR project, the “Regionally consistent risk assessment for earthquakes and floods and selective landslide scenario analysis for strengthening financial resilience and accelerating risk reduction in Central Asia” was developed to achieve the project's objectives. This article presents the data, model, methodology, and results for the five Central Asian countries of the flood risk assessment, which represents the first high-resolution regional-scale transboundary risk assessment study in the area aiming to provide tools for decision-making. The output information will inform and enable the World Bank to initiate a policy dialogue. A fully probabilistic risk assessment for fluvial floods has been carried out for these countries to support regional and national risk financing and insurance applications, including potential indemnity and/or parametric risk financing solutions for a regional programme. A homogenised risk assessment methodology for the five countries and across multiple hazards (floods and earthquakes) and asset types has been adopted to obtain strategic financial solutions consistent across geographical areas and economic sectors. The largest relative (to the total exposed value) expected annual damages are found in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, with values above 6 ‰. In the five considered countries, the largest relative expected annual damages by sector are found for the transport and agricultural sectors. Climate change is expected to have contrasting impacts, with increases in risk for some regions (the most severe increase is found in the Mangistauskaya region in Kazakhstan) and decreases for other regions (Lebap, Turkmenistan; Khatlon, Tajikistan; Samarkand, Uzbekistan; and Batken, Kyrgyz Republic).

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