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Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge and Storage Using MODFLOW in the Akhangaran River Alluvial Aquifer, Eastern Uzbekistan

Azam KadirkhodjaevState Establishment “Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology”, Olimlar Street 64, Mirzo-Ulugbek District, Tashkent 100164, UzbekistanDmitriy AndreevState Establishment “Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology”, Olimlar Street 64, Mirzo-Ulugbek District, Tashkent 100164, UzbekistanBotir AkramovState Establishment “Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology”, Olimlar Street 64, Mirzo-Ulugbek District, Tashkent 100164, UzbekistanBotirjon AbdullaevState Establishment “Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology”, Olimlar Street 64, Mirzo-Ulugbek District, Tashkent 100164, UzbekistanZilola AbdujalilovaState Establishment “Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology”, Olimlar Street 64, Mirzo-Ulugbek District, Tashkent 100164, UzbekistanZulkhumar UmarovaState Establishment “Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology”, Olimlar Street 64, Mirzo-Ulugbek District, Tashkent 100164, UzbekistanDilfuza NazipovaState Establishment “Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology”, Olimlar Street 64, Mirzo-Ulugbek District, Tashkent 100164, UzbekistanIzzatullo RuzimovState Establishment “Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology”, Olimlar Street 64, Mirzo-Ulugbek District, Tashkent 100164, UzbekistanShakhriyor ToshevState Establishment “Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology”, Olimlar Street 64, Mirzo-Ulugbek District, Tashkent 100164, UzbekistanErkin AnorboevState Establishment “Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology”, Olimlar Street 64, Mirzo-Ulugbek District, Tashkent 100164, UzbekistanН. Р. РахимовState Establishment “Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology”, Olimlar Street 64, Mirzo-Ulugbek District, Tashkent 100164, UzbekistanFarrukh MamirovState Establishment “Institute of Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology”, Olimlar Street 64, Mirzo-Ulugbek District, Tashkent 100164, UzbekistanI. GrachevaState Establishment “Uzbekhydrogeology”, Olimlar Street 64, Mirzo-Ulugbek District, Tashkent 100164, UzbekistanSamrit LuomaWater and Mining Environment Solutions, Geological Survey of Finland, FI-02151 Espoo, Finland

Waterjournal2025en

ABI

Annotatsiya

A shallow quaternary sedimentary aquifer within the river alluvial deposits of eastern Uzbekistan is increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities. Despite its essential role in supplying water for domestic, agricultural, and industrial purposes, the aquifer system remains poorly understood. This study employed a three-dimensional MODFLOW-based groundwater flow model to assess climate change impacts on water budget components under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2020–2099. Model calibration yielded RMSE values between 0.25 and 0.51 m, indicating satisfactory performance. Simulations revealed that lateral inflows from upstream and side-valley alluvial deposits contribute over 84% of total inflow, while direct recharge from precipitation (averaging 120 mm/year, 24.7% of annual rainfall) and riverbed leakage together account for only 11.4%. Recharge occurs predominantly from November to April, with no recharge from June to August. Under future scenarios, winter recharge may increase by up to 22.7%, while summer recharge could decline by up to 100%. Groundwater storage is projected to decrease by 7.3% to 58.3% compared to 2010–2020, indicating the aquifer’s vulnerability to prolonged dry periods. These findings emphasize the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies and long-term monitoring to ensure sustainable groundwater use under changing climate conditions.

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Mavzular

Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies Transboundary Water Resource Management Water-Energy-Food Nexus Studies

Identifikatorlar

DOI: 10.3390/w17152291

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