Bioclimatic modeling of Tulipa fosteriana and Tulipa ingens: Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of endangered wild tulips

Bioclimatic modeling is an essential tool for predicting species distributions under changing environmental conditions. T. fosteriana and T. ingens, rare and endemic tulip species in Uzbekistan, are currently facing increasing threats from habitat loss and climate change. Understanding their potential range under current and future climate scenarios is crucial for conservation planning. The present study employed Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to assess the habitat suitability of T. fosteriana and T. ingens using occurrence data from field surveys, herbarium records and biodiversity databases. Environmental predictors included climatic, soil and topographical variables. Model accuracy was evaluated using the Area Under the Curve (AUC) and future habitat projections were generated under Ssp126 (moderate emissions) and Ssp585 (high emissions) scenarios for 2041-2060. The results suggest that T. fosteriana may expand its range, particularly in the Hissar and Bobotog mountain ranges, while T. ingens is projected to suffer severe habitat reduction, losing over 90 % of its suitable areas under the high-emission scenario. The most influential environmental variables were precipitation in the coldest quarter and depth to bedrock, highlighting the role of moisture availability and soil structure in habitat suitability. High AUC values (above 0.98) confirm model robustness. These findings emphasize the contrasting responses of the two species to climate change. While T. fosteriana may benefit from rising temperatures, T. ingens is at high risk of habitat loss, requiring urgent conservation efforts. This study provides valuable insights for biodiversity management in Central Asia, highlighting the need for protected areas, in-situ conservation and potential ex-situ preservation strategies.

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