Emission/Reliability-Aware Stochastic Optimization of Electric Bus Parking Lots and Renewable Energy Sources in Distribution Network: A Fuzzy Multi-Objective Framework Considering Forecasted Data

In this paper, an emission- and reliability-aware stochastic optimization model is proposed for the economic planning of electric bus parking lots (EBPLs) with photovoltaic (PV) and wind-turbine (WT) resources in an 85-bus radial distribution network. The model simultaneously minimizes operating, emission, and energy-loss costs while increasing system reliability, measured by energy not supplied (ENS), and uses a fuzzy decision-making approach to determine the final solution. To address optimization challenges, a new multi-objective entropy-guided Sinh–Cosh Optimizer (MO-ESCHO) is proposed to efficiently mitigate premature convergence and produce a well-distributed Pareto front. Also, a hybrid forecasting architecture that combines MO-ESCHO and artificial neural networks (ANN) is proposed for accurate prediction of PV and WT power and network loading. The framework is tested across five cases, progressively incorporating EBPL, demand response (DR), forecast information, and stochastic simulation of uncertainties using a new hybrid Unscented Transformation–Cubature Quadrature Rule (UT-CQR) method. Comparative analyses against conventional methods confirm superior performance in achieving better objective values and ensuring computational efficiency. The outcomes indicate that the combination of EBPL with RES reduces operating costs by 5.23%, emission costs by 27.39%, and ENS by 11.48% compared with the base case with RES alone. Moreover, incorporating the stochastic model increases operating costs by 6.03%, emission costs by 5.05%, and ENS by 7.94% over the deterministic forecast case, reflecting the added complexity of uncertainty. The main contributions lie in coupling EBPLs and RES under uncertainty and proposing UT-CQR, which exhibits robust system performance with reduced variance and lower computational effort compared with Monte Carlo and cloud-model approaches.

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