Assessing Country-Specific Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: An Empirical Approach

This study quantitatively assesses macroeconomic risks in Uzbekistan's economy. Macroeconomic risk assessment factors were developed by adjusting indicators from the external, real, monetary, and fiscal sectors. The difference between actual and potential GDP was selected as the primary risk measure. The study considered the influence of factors such as the inflation rate, unemployment rate, real output, exchange rate, trade deficit, public debt-to-GDP ratio, and budget deficit. Results showed that real GDP growth, the trade balance, and the budget deficit exhibited the highest sensitivity to the economy's risk level, while the exchange rate, public debt-to-GDP ratio, and inflation showed relatively weaker correlations. All hypothesis tests conducted to determine the significance and reliability of the model's indicators and results yielded positive outcomes.

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