Assessment of geodynamic risk in the Tashkent Region using GNSS data and spatial analysis methods

The assessment of contemporary surface deformations and their spatial distribution is crucial for territorial planning, monitoring, and risk management in geodynamically active regions. The Tashkent Region is characterized by a combination of complex fault structures, high population density, and intensive industrial development, which determines the necessity of a comprehensive analysis of geodynamic processes using modern GIS technologies. This study aimed to map and spatially zone the intensity of contemporary deformation processes using continuous GNSS station data from 2018 to 2024. Spline interpolation based on GNSS data was applied as the main spatial analysis method, enabling the construction of a reliable deformation intensity field and the identification of key zones within the Tashkent Region. As a result, areas with maximum deformation intensities of up to 10 nanostrains per year (nstrain/y) were identified, which is more than three times the regional average (2–4 nstrain/y). The highest values were observed along major fault zones as well as in industrial centers (Angren, Almalyk), where up to 25 earthquakes with magnitudes of 2.5–4.0 were recorded in recent years. The zoning map was classified by risk levels, allowing for the identification of areas with increased geodynamic activity and potential threats to infrastructure and the population. Comparison with seismic data for 2018–2024 confirmed that the areas with high deformation intensity also correspond to zones with the highest density of seismic events. The resulting maps were integrated into a GIS environment and can support decision-making in risk management, monitoring system development, and territorial planning. The novelty of this study lies in the integration of modern satellite-based GNSS data with GIS tools to provide a comprehensive quantitative assessment of regional geodynamic activity and to produce informative maps for practical territorial management.

Hali tarjima qilinmagan